Round 2 | Dragons vs Storm | WIN Stadium, Wollongong | Sat 14 Mar 2026, 5:30pm AEDT
The Storm put 52 on the Eels last week. Eight tries, a 48-point margin, and Utoikamanu running for a career-high 242 metres. That’s the team coming to Wollongong on Saturday.
But the Eels completed at 62% and gave away 17 penalties. That’s not a performance you can draw conclusions from – it’s a capitulation. The Storm were excellent, but they were playing against a side that handed them the ball every second set. The Dragons won’t do that. They completed at 88% in Vegas against a team that finished 3rd last year. The Storm that shows up against a disciplined defensive side will look very different from the one that carved up Parramatta.
The history says it’s going to be closer than you think
The all-time record against Melbourne is ugly: 13 wins from 43 games. But zoom in and it gets more interesting.
Since 2020, it’s been 3-3. The Dragons have won two of the last three meetings, including a 14-8 win at Kogarah last year and an away win at AAMI Park in 2024. At home specifically, it’s 10 wins from 20 games. They don’t dominate the same way they do at AAMI Park when they’re here on our turf.
The last time the Dragons played Melbourne at WIN Stadium was 2023, a 28-38 loss. Before that, wins in 2016 and 2014. So the recent WIN Stadium form isn’t great – but the broader home record holds up.
The momentum from Vegas
The Dragons lost by a point on a field goal with six seconds left, and yeah, that stings – but the performance underneath the result had a lot to like, and those are the things you want to carry into Saturday.
The completion rate jumped from 76% in the Charity Shield to 88% in Vegas against a genuine top-four side. If they can hold that against a Storm kicking game run by Jahrome Hughes (who’s elite at pinning you in your own 20), then that’s a good start.
Cook was the best player on the field. 70 tackles at 95.89%, 131 passes, 91 fantasy points. The longer turnaround gives a 33-year-old time to recover from that kind of output – and if he brings anything close to that level again, the Dragons’ defensive structure holds up against anyone.
One thing that has to change is the penalty count. Nine against the Bulldogs, and two of Crichton’s three penalty goals came directly off Dragons infringements. You don’t get away with that kind of count against Melbourne. Hughes and Munster will take every free set you give them and turn it into points. The Storm don’t need invitations – they just need field position.
The squad is unchanged. Stewart starts at lock, Sele off the bench – the same game-day adjustment they made in Vegas. Same 17. The coaching staff liked what they saw.
The matchup to watch
Su’A against his old club. Last time these two sides met, Su’A was player of the match with 130 run metres and 5 tackle breaks. The year before, he scored two tries and ran for 156 metres against them. He’s built for these games – he’s physical, he’s aggressive, and he clearly lifts against Melbourne. If the Dragons need someone to set the tone up front, he’s done it against this opponent before.
On the other side, the Storm bring back Tui Kamikamica (replacing MacDonald, who failed an HIA in Rd 1) and Nelson Asofa-Solomona is still suspended, so Hetherington comes in. It’s not their strongest pack on paper, but their pack still ran for 242 metres through Utoikamanu alone last week. The forward battle is where this game will be won or lost – again.
The prediction
The Storm are the Storm. But WIN Stadium at 5:30 on a Saturday is a good slot, the two-week turnaround has given the squad time to reset, and the Dragons have won two of the last three against this team. Melbourne’s pack isn’t at full strength either – no Asofa-Solomona, MacDonald out with concussion.
If the penalty count stays under 6 and the completion rate holds above 80%, the Dragons win this. If they give away 9 penalties again, it doesn’t matter how good the defence is.
I think they get it done. It’ll be tight – maybe a penalty goal in it – but this squad showed in Vegas that they can match a top-four team for 90 minutes. A Storm side missing key forwards, travelling to Wollongong, against a Dragons team with two weeks to prepare? I like those odds more than most people will.