Round 1 Preview | Dragons vs Bulldogs | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas | Sat 1 Mar 2026
The Dragons are heading to Vegas for the first time, and the discourse has already split into two camps. There’s the “this is huge, season-defining” crowd and the “it’s Round 1, relax” crowd. Two years of data says they’re both wrong.
What actually happened to the other Vegas teams
Eight NRL teams have played in Las Vegas across 2024 and 2025. Here’s what happened next.
| Year | Team | Vegas Result | Season Finish | Finals? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Sea Eagles | Won | 7th | Yes (Week 2 exit) |
| 2024 | Roosters | Won | 3rd | Yes (Prelim Final) |
| 2024 | Rabbitohs | Lost | 15th | No |
| 2024 | Broncos | Lost | 12th | No |
| 2025 | Raiders | Won | 1st | Yes (Minor Premiers) |
| 2025 | Panthers | Won | 7th | Yes (Prelim Final) |
| 2025 | Sharks | Lost | 5th | Yes |
| 2025 | Warriors | Lost | 6th | Yes |
The 2024 results look neat: winners made finals, losers didn’t. But 2025 blew that up. The Panthers won in Vegas and were dead last at Round 12. The Sharks and Warriors both lost and still made finals. All four 2025 Vegas teams played finals football regardless of the result.
Nathan Cleary was honest about it after last year. He said the Vegas trip felt like a grand final, and the Panthers’ standards slipped in the weeks after. They didn’t recover until a 9-game winning streak in the back half of the season. If the best team in the competition can’t handle the disruption cleanly, nobody can.
The data says Vegas is noise. Win or lose, what matters is what happens in the 25 rounds after it.
The actual matchup
The Bulldogs finished 3rd in 2025 and have been one of the comp’s most improved teams over two seasons. The Dragons’ record against them is ugly: 1 win from the last 7 meetings, and 17-32 all-time since 1999. This isn’t a favourable draw.
The Dragons’ pre-season form has been mixed. The Charity Shield loss to a development Souths squad exposed a 76% completion rate and 13 errors. The halves split between Flanagan (distributor, 73 passes, zero kicks) and Atkinson (kicker, 554 metres from 18 kicks) looked structured – but one trial against an understrength team isn’t proof of anything.
The injury list is the other concern. Hame Sele failed an HIA in minute 1 of the Charity Shield. Su’A left at halftime with a hip knock. If either isn’t fit, the pack depth gets tested immediately.
What to watch for
Forget the result. Here’s what will actually tell us something about the Dragons’ season:
Completion rate. If they can’t get to 80%+ in Vegas, the Charity Shield wasn’t a one-off. The Bulldogs complete at elite levels and will punish every dropped ball.
The halves under pressure. Flanagan and Atkinson had a clear structure against a reserve-grade Souths defence. The Bulldogs are a different proposition. Does the kicking split hold when they’re under the pump?
Cook’s role. 55 fantasy points and 94.44% tackle rate against Souths was classic Cook. The question is whether his combination with the new halves holds up against a genuine defensive unit.
The take
Shane Flanagan said it best (even if the media stripped the context): the Dragons aren’t winning the comp this year. Finals is the goal. If that’s true, then what happens in Vegas doesn’t need to define the season. Every team that’s been to Vegas has found that out the hard way or the easy way.
The Bulldogs are a hard first-up assignment. The Dragons might lose. If they do, the data says it doesn’t matter nearly as much as everyone will tell you it does.